Open Conference Systems, 50th Scientific meeting of the Italian Statistical Society

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Fertility Drain or Fertility Gain? The Effect of Emigration on Fertility in Italian Municipalities during the Great Recession
Nicoletta Balbo

Last modified: 2018-05-18


The present paper aims at understanding how selection into emigration from Italy to other European countries may affect fertility in the municipal area of origin during the Great Recession. Exploiting the Administrative Registry of Italians Residing Abroad (AIRE) - that collects information about all Italian citizens moving their residence abroad – and birth records, we use an instrumental variable approach to analyze how emigration affects the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) at the municipal level. We find that municipalities with higher emigration rates experienced a greater decrease in TFR during the Great Recession, suggesting that people who has been emigrating from Italian municipalities to other European countries are those more at risk of having children.

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