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On a failure process driven by a self-correcting model in seismic hazard assessment
Last modified: 2017-04-19
Abstract
Two widely noted features of earthquake generation process are the following:
a) earthquakes tend to occur in clusters, and b) fault ruptures that generate earthquakes
decrease the amount of strain present along the fault and hence the probability that
another shock occurs in the near future. These diametrically opposed features have been widely
studied separately in the literature by two classes of models: self-exciting
and self-correcting models. To reconcile these contrasting trends we propose a new
stochastic model which distinguishes strong events - leaders - from those of lower
magnitude. The former follow a stress release model; conditioned on their occurrence,
the remaining events constitute a set of ordered times of minor ruptures occurring
in the time interval between two consecutive leader-events.
a) earthquakes tend to occur in clusters, and b) fault ruptures that generate earthquakes
decrease the amount of strain present along the fault and hence the probability that
another shock occurs in the near future. These diametrically opposed features have been widely
studied separately in the literature by two classes of models: self-exciting
and self-correcting models. To reconcile these contrasting trends we propose a new
stochastic model which distinguishes strong events - leaders - from those of lower
magnitude. The former follow a stress release model; conditioned on their occurrence,
the remaining events constitute a set of ordered times of minor ruptures occurring
in the time interval between two consecutive leader-events.