Open Conference Systems, 50th Scientific meeting of the Italian Statistical Society

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Cause of effects: an important evaluation in Forensic Science
Fabio Corradi, Monica Musio

Last modified: 2018-05-25


Causes of Effects (COE)
queries  concern the assessment of causal relationship in  individual cases by evaluating the probability of causation. However is not always clear how and whether, to usefully employ scientific
data for this pourpose.
Given even a randomized sample we can typically only provide bounds for the
probability of causation 
if some fundamental conditions, namely exogeneity, comparability and sufficiency are satisfied.  In this work we make the fundamental
conditions operative by means of a Bayesian model
selection procedure.


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