Font Size:

Bayesian Population Size Estimation with A Single Sample

Last modified: 2018-05-18

#### Abstract

The estimation of the size of a finite population is a problem encountered in a variety of applications.

One standard statistical approach relies on \textit{mark-recapture} sampling, which may require high costs and annoyance to the population of interest.

These considerations have motivated the search for alternative sampling strategies that allow to estimate the size of a population from a single capture. Hettiarachchige(2016) proposes a method that is viable when the population is made of only two generations: a group of generators and one of generated units.

We investigate Bayesian methods alternative to the frequentist estimators used by the original author.

Preliminary results give evidence of competing performance of the Bayesian approach, which in some cases sensibly outperforms the frequentist alternatives.

One standard statistical approach relies on \textit{mark-recapture} sampling, which may require high costs and annoyance to the population of interest.

These considerations have motivated the search for alternative sampling strategies that allow to estimate the size of a population from a single capture. Hettiarachchige(2016) proposes a method that is viable when the population is made of only two generations: a group of generators and one of generated units.

We investigate Bayesian methods alternative to the frequentist estimators used by the original author.

Preliminary results give evidence of competing performance of the Bayesian approach, which in some cases sensibly outperforms the frequentist alternatives.

#### References

\bibitem{Bravington.2016} Bravington, M.V. and Skaug, H.J. and Eric, C.: Close-kin mark-recapture. Statistical Science 31 (2), 259 â€“ 274 (2016), Institute of Mathematical Statistics

\bibitem{Cormack.1964} Cormack, R.M.: Estimates of survival from the sighting of marked animals. Biometrika 51 (3/4), 429 - 438 (1964), JSTOR

\bibitem{Fegatelli.2013} Fegatelli, D.A. and Tardella, L.: Improved inference on capture recapture models with behavioural effects. Statistical Methods \& Applications 22 (1), 45 - 66 (2013), Springer

\bibitem{Hettia.2016} Hettiarachchige, C.K.H.: Inference from single occasion capture experiments using genetic markers. PhD Thesis (2016)

\bibitem{Schwartz.1998} Schwartz, M.K. and Tallmon, D.A. and Luikart, G.: Review of DNA-based census and effective population size estimators. Animal Conservation forum 1 (4), 293 - 299 (1998), Cambridge University Press

\bibitem{Seber.1965} Seber, G.A.F.: A note on the multiple-recapture census. Biometrika 52 (1/2), 249 - 259, (1965), JSTOR

\bibitem{Skaug.2001} Skaug, H.J.: Allele-sharing methods for estimation of population size. Biometrics 57 (3), 750 â€“ 756 (2001), JSTOR

\bibitem{Cormack.1964} Cormack, R.M.: Estimates of survival from the sighting of marked animals. Biometrika 51 (3/4), 429 - 438 (1964), JSTOR

\bibitem{Fegatelli.2013} Fegatelli, D.A. and Tardella, L.: Improved inference on capture recapture models with behavioural effects. Statistical Methods \& Applications 22 (1), 45 - 66 (2013), Springer

\bibitem{Hettia.2016} Hettiarachchige, C.K.H.: Inference from single occasion capture experiments using genetic markers. PhD Thesis (2016)

\bibitem{Schwartz.1998} Schwartz, M.K. and Tallmon, D.A. and Luikart, G.: Review of DNA-based census and effective population size estimators. Animal Conservation forum 1 (4), 293 - 299 (1998), Cambridge University Press

\bibitem{Seber.1965} Seber, G.A.F.: A note on the multiple-recapture census. Biometrika 52 (1/2), 249 - 259, (1965), JSTOR

\bibitem{Skaug.2001} Skaug, H.J.: Allele-sharing methods for estimation of population size. Biometrics 57 (3), 750 â€“ 756 (2001), JSTOR

Full Text:
PDF