Open Conference Systems, 50th Scientific meeting of the Italian Statistical Society

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The impact of economic development on fertility: a complexity approach in a cross-country analysis
Niccolò Innocenti, Daniele Vignoli, Luciana Lazzeretti

Last modified: 2018-05-23


This work focuses on the role of economic indicators on fertility from a cross-country comparative perspective. It relies on a new indicator of the economy of a country and on its perspective of future development – i.e. the economic complexity. We apply a Structured Equation Model to data on 70 countries from 1964 to 2015 to assess the impact of economic complexity on economic growth (Gross Value Added, employment, innovation) and, then, on total fertility. Preliminary results show that the relation between economic complexity and economic growth is positive for all countries, while a U-shaped relation between the economic complexity and fertility seems to emerge during the analysed time-span.


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