Open Conference Systems, 50th Scientific meeting of the Italian Statistical Society

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Where the Current Age Structure is Heading
Gustavo De Santis, Giambattista Salinari

Last modified: 2018-08-24


We present and test a hypothesis which, to the best of our knowledge, is new in the demographic field: the age structure of any population in any period tends towards a specific shape, which can be identified in advance. This “attractor†is the age structure of the current stationary population, which we label RAS, or “reference age structureâ€. There is no mathematical demonstration for this tendency: however, we show that it exists in practice, measure the speed of the convergence (of the current on the reference age structure), and discuss the theoretical and practical utility of the notion.


UN. 2017. World population prospects, Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York.

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