Open Conference Systems, 50th Scientific meeting of the Italian Statistical Society

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A longitudinal analysis of the degree of accomplishment of anti-corruption measures by Italian municipalities: a latent Markov approach
Simone Del Sarto, Michela Gnaldi, Francesco Bartolucci

Last modified: 2018-04-26


The recent Italian anti-corruption law has introduced a new figure,
the supervisor for corruption prevention, who has to fill in an annual report
about the accomplishment of anti-corruption measures within the institution
he/she represents. Using data coming from such annual reports referred to a
sample of Italian municipalities, a latent Markov model is fitted to investigate
the evolution over time of the degree of accomplishment of anti-corruption
measures. First results evidence three latent states of increasing virtuosity.
Moreover, at the beginning of the study, the most of the sample belongs to
the low and intermediate states of virtuosity, even if there is evidence of high
probabilities to move to upper states over time.


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