Open Conference Systems, 50th Scientific meeting of the Italian Statistical Society

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Intentions to leave Italy or to stay among foreigners: what factors for different migration projects?
Paola Muccitelli, Ginevra Di Giorgio, Francesca Dota, Daniele Spizzichino

Last modified: 2018-06-01


The topic of migration intentions and return migration has been analyzed according to various theretical approaches (Stark (1996); Coleman (1988); Constant, Massey (2002); Dustmann (2003)). The affirmation of contrasting approaches refers to the complexity of factors wich orienting the migration intentions. On basis of Istat (Italian National Institute of Statistics) data about "Social Condition and Integration of Foreigners Citizens (SCIF)", a sample survey carried out over the 2011 and 2012, this paper aims to explore the migration propensity of foreign citizens resident in Italy. According to the empirical evidence on determinants of return behavior and return propensity of migrants, the association of different interactive factors was tested by using a binomial logistic regression model.  The objective is to estimate the probability of propensity to stay in Italy as opposed to that to return to their country of origin.


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