Open Conference Systems, 50th Scientific meeting of the Italian Statistical Society

Font Size: 
A Probabilistic Cohort-Component Model for Population Forecasting – The Case of Germany
Patrizio Vanella, Philipp Deschermeier

Last modified: 2018-08-24

Abstract


The future development of population size and structure is of undeniable importance since planning in many areas of politics and business is conducted based on expectations about the future makeup of the population. Countries with both decreasing mortality and low fertility rates, as is the case for most countries in Europe, are in urgent need of adequate population forecasts to identify future problems for social security systems and overall macroeconomic development. The labor market will especially be affected by the retirement of the baby boomer generation and the resulting shortage of young skilled workers. This contribution proposes a stochastic cohort-component model that uses simulation techniques based on stochastic models for fertility, migration and mortality to forecast the population by age and sex.

References


GENESIS-Online Datenbank 2018: Lebendgeborene: Deutschland, Jahre, Geschlecht. In: www-genesis.destatis.de. URL: https://www-gene-sis.destatis.de/genesis/online/data;jsessionid=C4FF958DD4F6A3F4DB5C783F4B2D2890.tomcat_GO_2_1?operation=abruftabelleAbrufen&selectionname=12612-0001&levelindex=1&levelid=1515759981915&index=1, 10.01.2018.

Vanella, Patrizio 2017a: A Principal Component Model for Forecasting Age- and Sex-Specific Survival Probabilities in Western Europe. In: German Journal of Risk and Insurance 106,5: 539–554 [10.1007/s12297-017-0393-y].

Vanella, Patrizio 2017b: Age- and Sex-Specific Fertility in Germany until the Year 2040 – The Impact of International Migration. Hannover Economic Papers 606. Hannover: Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Universität Hannover, School of Economics and Management.

Vanella, Patrizio 2017c: Stochastische Prognose demografischer Komponenten auf Basis der Hauptkomponentenanalyse. Hannover Economic Papers 597. Hannover: Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Universität Hannover, School of Economics and Management.

Vanella, Patrizio; Deschermeier, Philipp 2017: Ein stochastisches Prognosemodell internationaler Migration in Deutschland. Hannover Economic Papers 605. Hannover: Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Universität Hannover, School of Economics and Management.


Full Text: XML