Open Conference Systems, STATISTICS AND DATA SCIENCE: NEW CHALLENGES, NEW GENERATIONS

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News, Volatility and Price Jumps
Massimiliano Caporin, Francesco Poli

Last modified: 2017-05-19

Abstract


From two professional news providers we retrieve news stories and earnings announcements of the S&P 100 constituents and 10 macro fundamentals, moreover we gather Google Trends of the assets. We create an extensive and innovative database, useful to analyze the link between news and asset price dynamics. We detectthe sentiment of news stories using a dictionary of sentiment words and negations,and propose a set of more than 5K information-based variables that providenatural proxies of the information used by heterogeneous market players and of retailinvestors attention.We first shed light on the impact of information measures ondaily realized volatility and select them by penalized regression; then, we use themto forecast volatility and obtain superior results with respect to models that omitthem. Finally, we relate news with intraday jumps using penalized logistic regression.